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Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.
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2011 |
Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida.
Climate Change 107(1-2): 185-202. 5 figs. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0085-x. July 2011.
–ABSTRACT: Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.
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Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; Mackenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth
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2011 |
Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach.
Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2: 595-601. 1 tab. DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00113.x.
–ABSTRACT:
1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians).
2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter.
3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models.
4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial manatee surveys.
5. Overestimation of abundance by binomial mixture models owing to non-independent detections is problematic for ecological studies, but also for conservation. For example, in the case of endangered species, it could lead to inappropriate management decisions, such as downlisting. These issues will be increasingly relevant as more ecologists apply flexible N-mixture models to ecological data.
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Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Burgess, Matthew A.; Percival, H. Franklin; Fagan, Daniel E.; Gardner, Beth E.; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G.; Ifju, Peter G.; Evers, Brandon S.; Rambo, Thomas J.
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2012 |
Estimating distribution of hidden objects with drones: from tennis balls to manatees.
PLoS One 7(6):e38882. 8 pp. 7 figs. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038882. June 25, 2012.
–ABSTRACT: Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or drones, have been used widely in military applications, but more recently civilian applications have emerged (e.g., wildlife population monitoring, traffic monitoring, law enforcement, oil and gas pipeline threat detection). UAV can have several advantages over manned aircraft for wildlife surveys, including reduced ecological footprint, increased safety, and the ability to collect high-resolution geo-referenced imagery that can document the presence of species without the use of a human observer. We illustrate how geo-referenced data collected with UAV technology in combination with recently developed statistical models can improve our ability to estimate the distribution of organisms. To demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology, we conducted an experiment in which tennis balls were used as surrogates of organisms to be surveyed. We used a UAV to collect images of an experimental field with a known number of tennis balls, each of which had a certain probability of being hidden. We then applied spatially explicit occupancy models to estimate the number of balls and created precise distribution maps. We conducted three consecutive surveys over the experimental field and estimated the total number of balls to be 328 (95%CI: 312, 348). The true number was 329 balls, but simple counts based on the UAV pictures would have led to a total maximum count of 284. The distribution of the balls in the field followed a simulated environmental gradient. We also were able to accurately estimate the relationship between the gradient and the distribution of balls. Our experiment demonstrates how this technology can be used to create precise distribution maps in which discrete regions of the study area are assigned a probability of presence of an object. Finally, we discuss the applicability and relevance of this experimental study to the case study of Florida manatee distribution at power plants.
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Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.
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2014 |
Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
PLoS ONE 9(3): e91683. 6pp. 1 tab. 2 figs. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091683. Mar. 26, 2014.
–ABSTRACT: The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95% CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95% CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.
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Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Harmak, Craig W.; Dane, Teri M.
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2015 |
Combining information for monitoring at large spatial scales: First statewide abundance estimate of the Florida manatee.
Biological Conservation 186: 44-51. 4 figs. DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.02.029 June 2015.
–ABSTRACT: Monitoring abundance and distribution of organisms over large landscapes can be difficult. Because of challenges associated with logistics and data analyses uncorrected counts are often used as a proxy for abundance. We present the first statewide estimate of abundance for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) using an innovative approach that combines multiple sources of information. We used a combination of a double-observer protocol, repeated passes, and collection of detailed diving behavior data to account for imperfect detection of animals. Our estimate of manatee abundance was 6350 (95%CI: 5310–7390). Specifically, we estimated 2790 (95%CI: 2160–3540) manatees on the west coast (2011), and 3560 (95%CI: 2850–4410) on the east coast (2012). Unlike uncorrected counts conducted since 1991, our estimation method considered two major sources of error: spatial variation in distribution and imperfect detection. The Florida manatee is listed as endangered, but its status is currently under review; the present study may become important for the review process. Interestingly, we estimated that 70% (95%CI: 60–80%) of manatees on the east coast of Florida were aggregated in one county during our survey. Our study illustrates the value of combining information from multiple sources to monitor abundance at large scales. Integration of information can reduce cost, facilitate the use of data obtained from new technologies to increase accuracy, and contribute to encouraging coordination among survey teams from different organizations nationally or internationally. Finally, we discuss the applicability of our work to other conservation applications (e.g., risk assessment) and to other systems.
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Martin, Julien; Sabatier, Quentin; Gowan, Timothy A.; Giraud, Christophe; Gurarie, Eliezer; Calleson, Charles Scott; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Rycyk, Athena M.; Koslovsky, Stacie M.
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2015 |
A quantitative framework for investigating risk of deadly collisions between marine wildlife and boats.
Methods in Ecology and Evolution 7: 42-50. 3 figs. DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12447. Published online Nov. 12, 2015.
–ABSTRACT: 1. Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife.
2. We apply encounter rate theory to demonstrate how marine mammal–boat encounter rate can be used to predict the expected number of deaths associated with management scenarios. We illustrate our approach with management scenarios for two endangered species: the Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris and the North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis. We used a Monte Carlo simulation approach to demonstrate the uncertainty that is associated with our estimate of relative mortality.
3. We show that encounter rate increased with vessel speed but that the expected number of encounters varies depending on the boating activities considered. For instance, in a scenario involving manatees and boating activities such as water skiing, the expected number of encounters in a given area (in a fixed time interval) increased with vessel speed. In another scenario in which a vessel made a transit of fixed length, the expected number of encounters decreases slightly with boat speed. In both cases, the expected number of encounters increased with distanced travelled by the boat. For whales, we found a slight reduction (˜0·1%) in the number of encounters under a scenario where speed is unregulated; this reduction, however, is negligible, and overall expected relative mortality was ˜30% lower under the scenario with speed regulation. The probability of avoidance by the animal or vessel was set to 0 because of lack of data, but we explored the importance of this parameter on the model predictions. In fact, expected relative mortality under speed regulations decreases even further when the probability of avoidance is a decreasing function of vessel speed.
4. By applying encounter rate theory to the case of boat collisions with marine mammals, we gained new insights about encounter processes between wildlife and watercraft. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainty when estimating wildlife mortality. Finally, our findings are relevant to other systems and ecological processes involving the encounter between moving agents.
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Edwards, Holly H.; Martin, Julien; Deutsch, Charles J.; Muller, R. G.; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Smith, A. J.; Barlas, M. E.
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2016 |
Influence of manatees' diving on their risk of collision with watercraft.
PLOS One 11(4): e0151450. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0151450. 2 tabs. 5 figs. Apr. 6, 2016.
–ABSTRACT: Watercraft pose a threat to endangered Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Mortality from watercraft collisions has adversely impacted the manatee population's growth rate, therefore reducing this threat is an important management goal. To assess factors that contribute to the risk of watercraft strikes to manatees, we studied the diving behavior of nine manatees carrying GPS tags and time–depth recorders in Tampa Bay, Florida, during winters 2002–2006. We applied a Bayesian formulation of generalized linear mixed models to depth data to model the probability (Pt) that manatees would be no deeper than 1.25 m from the water's surface as a function of behavioral and habitat covariates. Manatees above this threshold were considered to be within striking depth of a watercraft. Seventy-eight percent of depth records (individual range 62–86%) were within striking depth (mean = 1.09 m, max = 16.20 m), illustrating how vulnerable manatees are to strikes. In some circumstances manatees made consecutive dives to the bottom while traveling, even in areas >14 m, possibly to conserve energy. This is the first documentation of potential cost-efficient diving behavior in manatees. Manatees were at higher risk of being within striking depth in shallow water (<0.91 m), over seagrass, at night, and while stationary or moving slowly; they were less likely to be within striking depth when ?50 m from a charted waterway. In shallow water the probability of a manatee being within striking depth was 0.96 (CI = 0.93–0.98) and decreased as water depth increased. The probability was greater over seagrass (Pt = 0.96, CI = 0.93–0.98) than over other substrates (Pt = 0.73, CI = 0.58–0.84). Quantitative approaches to assessing risk can improve the effectiveness of manatee conservation measures by helping identify areas for protection.
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Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Hostetler, J. A.; Martin, Julien; Deutsch, Charles J.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Mahon, Gary L.
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2017 |
Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2016.
U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5030: ix + 40. 8 tabs. 18 figs. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175030
–ABSTRACT: Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris, the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century.
A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.
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Udell, Bradley J.; Martin, Julien; Fletcher, Robert J., Jr.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Edwards, Holly H.; Gowan, Timothy A.; Hardy, Stacie K.; Gurarie, Eliezer; Calleson, Charles S.; Deutsch, Charles J.
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2019 |
Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife.
Jour. Applied Ecology 56(5): 1050-1062. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13290 May 2019.
–ABSTRACT: Better understanding human–wildlife interactions and their links with management can help improve the design of wildlife protection zones. One example is the problem of wildlife collisions with vehicles or human-built structures (e.g., power lines, wind farms). In fact, collisions between marine wildlife and watercraft are among the major threats faced by several endangered species of marine mammals. Natural resource managers are therefore interested in finding cost-effective solutions to mitigate these threats.
We combined abundance estimators with encounter rate theory to estimate relative lethal collision risk of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from watercraft. We first modelled seasonal abundance of watercraft and manatees using a Bayesian analysis of aerial survey count data. We then modelled relative lethal collision risk in space and across seasons. Finally, we applied decision analysis and Linear Integer Programming to determine the optimal design of speed zones in terms of relative risk to manatees and costs to waterway users. We used a Pareto efficient frontier approach to evaluate the performance of alternative zones, which included additional practical considerations (e.g., spatial aggregation of speed zones) in relation to the optimal zone configurations.
Under the various relationships for probability of death given strike speed that we considered, the current speed zones reduced the relative lethal collision risk by an average of 51.5% to 70.0% compared to the scenario in which all speed regulations were removed (i.e., the no-protection scenario). We identified optimal zones and near-optimal zones with additional management considerations that improved upon the current zones in terms of cost or relative risk.
Policy implications. Our analytical framework combines encounter rate theory and decision analysis to quantify the effectiveness of speed zones in protecting manatees while accounting for uncertainty. Our approach can be used to optimize the design of protection zones intended to reduce conflicts between human waterborne activity and marine mammals. This framework could be extended to address many other problems of human–wildlife interactions, such as the optimal placement of wind farms to minimize collisions with wildlife or the optimal allocation of ranger effort to mitigate poaching threats.
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Bibliography and Index of the Sirenia and Desmostylia 