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Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.
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2014 |
Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
PLoS ONE 9(3): e91683. 6pp. 1 tab. 2 figs. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091683. Mar. 26, 2014.
–ABSTRACT: The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95% CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95% CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.
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Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Hostetler, J. A.; Martin, Julien; Deutsch, Charles J.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Mahon, Gary L.
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2017 |
Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2016.
U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5030: ix + 40. 8 tabs. 18 figs. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175030
–ABSTRACT: Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris, the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century.
A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.
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Lonati, Gina L.; Howell, Amber R,; Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Schueller, Paul; de Wit, Martine; Bassett, Brandon L.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.
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2019 |
Accuracy, precision, and error in age estimation of Florida manatees using growth layer groups in earbones.
Jour. Mammalogy 100(4):1350-1363. 5 tabs. 7 figs. + online supplementary files. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyz079 July 27, 2019 (publ. online May 30, 2019).
–ABSTRACT: Ages of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) can be estimated by counting annual growth layer groups (GLGs) in the periotic dome portion of the tympanoperiotic complex of their earbones. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages an archive of more than 8,700 Florida manatee earbones collected from salvaged carcasses from 1989 to 2017. Our goal was to comprehensively evaluate techniques used to estimate age, given this large sample size and changes to processing protocols and earbone readers over time. We developed new standards for estimating ages from earbones, involving two independent readers to obtain measurements of within- and between-reader precision. To quantify accuracy, precision, and error, 111 earbones from manatees with approximately known ages (first known as calves: "KAC") and 69 earbones from manatees with minimum known ages ("MKA," based on photo-identification sighting histories) were processed, and their ages were estimated. There was greater precision within readers (coefficient of variation, CV: 2.4–8.5%) than between readers (CV: 13.1–13.3%). The median of age estimates fell within the true age range for 63.1% of KAC cases and was at least the sighting duration for 75.0% of MKA cases. Age estimates were generally unbiased, as indicated by an average raw error ± SD of ?0.05 ± 3.05 years for the KAC group. The absolute error (i.e., absolute value of raw error) of the KAC data set averaged 1.75 ± 2.50 years. Accuracy decreased and error increased with increasing known age, especially for animals over 15 years old, whose ages were mostly underestimated due to increasing levels of resorption (the process of bone turnover that obscures GLGs). Understanding the degree of uncertainty in age estimates will help us assess the utility of age data in manatee population models. We emphasize the importance of standardizing and routinely reviewing age estimation and processing protocols to ensure that age data remain consistent and reliable.
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Bibliography and Index of the Sirenia and Desmostylia 