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Hardy, Stacie K.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Cross, Tiffanie A.; de Wit, Martine; Hostetler, Jeffrey A.
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2019 |
Cold-related Florida manatee mortality in relation to air and water temperatures.
PLoS ONE 14(11): e0225048. 4 tabs. 8 figs. + online supporting information. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225048 Nov. 21, 2019.
–ABSTRACT: Many tropical and subtropical species are sensitive to sudden temperature changes, especially drops in temperature. During winters 2009–2010 and 2010–2011, unusually cold temperatures occurred in many parts of Florida, USA, resulting in increased mortality of Florida manatees, sea turtles, fish, corals, and other species. The Florida manatee, in particular, is highly susceptible to cold stress and death when water temperatures drop below 20°C. We sought to characterize the magnitude and timing of reports of cold-related manatee carcasses in relation to fluctuations in water and air temperatures in central-east and central-west Florida during the six winters from 2008 to 2014. We used a generalized linear model to predict counts of manatee carcasses with a cold-related cause of death reported over 7-day bins in relation to various short-term (two weeks or less) and cumulative (incrementally summed from the start of the winter) heating-degree-day effects (HDD; < 20°C) and a categorical winter variable. Using water temperature data, the top-ranked model in both regions included a short-term temperature effect (14-day HDD sum) that preceded increases in reports of cold-related manatee carcasses by 7 days. Cumulative exposure to cold weather over the winter amplified effects on mortality in the central-east region. Quantifying the relationship between cold events and manatee mortality helps us prepare for rescue and salvage operations when extremely cold weather is forecast. This is especially important because anticipated loss or degradation of warm-water refuges due to human activities and sea level rise could potentially impact the manatee population in the future. These methods could also be applied to other species susceptible to cold-related mortality.
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Lonati, Gina L.; Howell, Amber R,; Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Schueller, Paul; de Wit, Martine; Bassett, Brandon L.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.
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2019 |
Accuracy, precision, and error in age estimation of Florida manatees using growth layer groups in earbones.
Jour. Mammalogy 100(4):1350-1363. 5 tabs. 7 figs. + online supplementary files. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyz079 July 27, 2019 (publ. online May 30, 2019).
–ABSTRACT: Ages of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) can be estimated by counting annual growth layer groups (GLGs) in the periotic dome portion of the tympanoperiotic complex of their earbones. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages an archive of more than 8,700 Florida manatee earbones collected from salvaged carcasses from 1989 to 2017. Our goal was to comprehensively evaluate techniques used to estimate age, given this large sample size and changes to processing protocols and earbone readers over time. We developed new standards for estimating ages from earbones, involving two independent readers to obtain measurements of within- and between-reader precision. To quantify accuracy, precision, and error, 111 earbones from manatees with approximately known ages (first known as calves: "KAC") and 69 earbones from manatees with minimum known ages ("MKA," based on photo-identification sighting histories) were processed, and their ages were estimated. There was greater precision within readers (coefficient of variation, CV: 2.4–8.5%) than between readers (CV: 13.1–13.3%). The median of age estimates fell within the true age range for 63.1% of KAC cases and was at least the sighting duration for 75.0% of MKA cases. Age estimates were generally unbiased, as indicated by an average raw error ± SD of ?0.05 ± 3.05 years for the KAC group. The absolute error (i.e., absolute value of raw error) of the KAC data set averaged 1.75 ± 2.50 years. Accuracy decreased and error increased with increasing known age, especially for animals over 15 years old, whose ages were mostly underestimated due to increasing levels of resorption (the process of bone turnover that obscures GLGs). Understanding the degree of uncertainty in age estimates will help us assess the utility of age data in manatee population models. We emphasize the importance of standardizing and routinely reviewing age estimation and processing protocols to ensure that age data remain consistent and reliable.
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Bibliography and Index of the Sirenia and Desmostylia 